Each pathway maps to the one number that drives your returns — the wholesale price your assets capture. Same transparent engine, only the input pathway changes.
Upside and downside are framed from your point of view — higher wholesale prices help merchant returns, faster clean build-out squeezes them. Tilt the supply build and commodity prices within any scenario — down to individual VRE technologies — or commission a fully custom one.
The same engine runs every scenario. Only the inputs change — and every input is visible.
Hourly prices, capacity and demand from ENTSO-E, IRENA, Ember, Eurostat — 2024 hindcast to a 0.1 €/MWh mean error, in sample.
Fuel & CO₂, demand, nuclear, BESS and per-technology VRE — all visible and adjustable.
A merit-order LP (PyPSA + HiGHS) clears every hour, per market, per year to 2050 — ~15s/year, cached in under 10.
Monte-Carlo weather re-draws turn a single curve into a P10–P90 band — every output ships with its interval.
Transparency includes the limitations. The current model tends to under-price gas-heavy markets by ~30 €/MWh in some forward years — stated up front, so sophisticated buyers can weight it themselves. Every assumption is yours to set, and every data source is publicly cited.
Run the three pathways yourself, tilt any assumption, or have us scope a bespoke scenario around your asset.